High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Due to climate change and associated longer more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, Institute Meteorology Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed Canada, has been adapted work with meteorological fields derived from high-resolution (2.5 km) Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Forecasts are made 24- 48-h lead times. purpose this is present validation system. First, results WRF model were validated using situ observations ~70 synoptic stations. Second, we used correlation method Eastaugh’s percentile analysis assess quality FWI index. data covered 2019 season analysed whole area Based on presented results, it can be concluded that index (calculated based model) very high predictive ability risk. However, vary by region, distance human habitats, size fire.